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Old 08-28-2019, 06:45 PM   #11
rubecube
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NFC North

Chicago Bears
Rube’s 2019 Projection: 11-5

Vegas O/U Win Total: 9.5 (O +132, U -158)
2018 record: 12-4
2018 PEW: 11.6 (-0.4 differential)
Fumble recovery rate (FRR): 50% (= NFL average)
Adjusted games lost (AGL): 36.6 (-41.6 vs NFL Average)
Net penalty yards (NPY): 226 (+226.7 vs. NFL Average)
One-score games: 10, .600 winning percentage (+10% vs NFL Average)

I’ve seen quite a few people talking up regression for the Bears this season but I’m just not seeing it in the data. I don’t think they’ll win 12 games again because they were marginally lucky in the penalty, differential, and injury departments, but we’re not looking at a massive collapse here by any means. If Trubisky sorts his #### out, they might very well be the team to beat in the NFC. The over is a great play here, IMO.

Minnesota Vikings
Rube’s 2019 Projection: 9-7

Vegas O/U Win Total: 9 (O +100, U -119)
2018 record: 8-7-1
2018 PEW: 8.5 (+0.5 differential)
Fumble recovery rate (FRR): 33.3% (-17% vs. NFL average)
Adjusted games lost (AGL): 73.9 (-4.3 vs NFL Average)
Net penalty yards (NPY): 55 (+55.7 vs. NFL Average)
One-score games: 5, .600 winning percentage (+10% vs NFL Average)

Again, I think the over is a decent play here. I personally think the Vikings go 10-6 but the data firmly supports 9-7, so at worst you’ll push.

Green Bay Packers
Rube’s 2019 Projection: 8-8

Vegas O/U Win Total: 9.5 (O +113, U -119)
2018 record: 6-9-1
2018 PEW: 7.4 (+1.4 differential)
Fumble recovery rate (FRR): 47.5% (-2.5% vs. NFL average)
Adjusted games lost (AGL): 92.7 (+14.5 vs NFL Average)
Net penalty yards (NPY): -145 (-144.3 vs. NFL Average)
One-score games: 9, .333 winning percentage (-16.7% vs NFL Average)

I have the Packers improving by anywhere from 3-5 games, but the model conservatively supports 2, so that’s why I went with 8-8. I definitely don’t think taking the over is a bad bet here.

Detroit Lions
Rube’s 2019 Projection: 7-9

Vegas O/U Win Total: 6.5 (O -143, U +120)
2018 record: 6-10
2018 PEW: 7 (+1 differential)
Fumble recovery rate (FRR): 51.2% (+1.2% vs. NFL average)
Adjusted games lost (AGL): 76.8 (-1.4 vs NFL Average)
Net penalty yards (NPY): 34 (+34.7 vs. NFL Average)
One-score games: 6, .333 winning percentage (-16.7% vs NFL Average)

This team looks like a firm 7-9. They weren’t particularly unlucky in any category except for one-score games (small sample size) and PEW differential. There’s not really much else to say about them so it will likely come down to coaching and injuries this year.
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