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Old 08-29-2018, 09:53 AM   #2
CorsiHockeyLeague
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I'm not "missing the point entirely", I simply disagree with you. I don't think there's any total there that's unachievable with a depth chart that would be unsurprising. Even just using the one on Dailyfaceoff, I think each of those predictions is in the realm of possible. I'd say they're a touch on the optimistic side, but none of them are wildly out of whack. Frankly, if RNH plays as 2C, I'd have him in the high 50s or low 60s without McDavid. If the assumption is that he plays LW for McDavid and then on PP2, I think 62 is probably a touch conservative. So's the Klefbom number. It's totally unclear to me who he thinks is playing RW with McDavid. It seems like the bet is that Draisaitl is on 2C and PP1 (in which I'd say low 70s rather than high 70s but that's nitpicking). Literally every other potential guy listed, if they were to play the full season on McDavid's RW, has a very conservative points estimate next to their name for that role. So maybe there is an assumption about a rotating cast of characters in that role. Then you have a bunch of depth guys he's predicting ~30 points for - not crazy.

The Lucic number is perhaps a few goals too high, but I honestly don't know how to predict Lucic - I think everyone knew that was a bad contract the minute it was signed, but realistically, you wouldn't have thought he'd be as bad as he was last year and it's not crazy to think he could rebound at least to some extent. Also not crazy to think he might get worse.

So yeah, I think they'll probably score, say, 10-15% more goals as a team than they did last year. Some players won't meet the expectations, others will be injured, some may exceed them depending on deployment and development. But I can't look at any of those predictions and say "that just isn't going to happen".
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