Quote:
Originally Posted by GirlySports
It's a possibility. Depends how many quiet voters there are, the people that dont answer polls honestly.
Think small, not the big picture. Think of your office, how would people react if a co worker said they were prolife? Or a college student who wants their college open again. If the situation is toxic enough, there could be many shy Trump voters. If it's not then Biden gets to 350.
|
There is no evidence of a shy voter affect.
Mistakes in polling tend to be assuming a demographic group is uniform and only polling a subset of it and the assumption of uniformity not being true.
The big one last time was whites with college degrees vs whites without college degrees were weighted as whites and it turned out that whites with college degrees were easier to get a hold of than without and whites without supported trump more than whites with and there was the polling error.
It wasn’t shy trump voters not answering polls it was trump voters not being asked.
So things like under sampling Cubans-Americans in Florida or Native white Floridians vs New York white retirees. It won’t be shy Trump voters even if Trump wins.