It depends how much and how it mutates. We currently have very high levels of immunity against prior, more severe variants. But as booster rates drop and prior immunity wanes, that won't continue. So it's possible that we'd see a resurgence of a mutation from a prior, more severe variant.
It's theoretically possible that the virus runs out of possible mutations that improve its fitness and/or immune evasion ability. Or that it continues to mutate into a less severe form to the point where a mutation to a severe variant is extremely unlikely (similar to the other endemic coronaviruses). If any of that happens, the pandemic would essentially be over.
But it's also totally possible that we have an immune escape variant in the coming years that's far more severe than Omicron, at which point we're right back in a serious pandemic. I know at the start of the pandemic, some scientists estimated 2-5 years before there'd be a full immune escape variant, and so far that seems pretty accurate (Omicron was most of the way there). So it's plausible that that will continue to happen. Recent vaccination will likely continue to provide fantastic protection against severe disease even with significantly mutated variants, but will people continue to take them regularly? I'm doubtful.
|