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Old 09-28-2020, 04:19 PM   #473
Sylvanfan
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I think as more pro offences can successfully execute some of the College spread formations, and other concepts that have traditionally not been successful in the pro game we will see more scoring, and not so much because defences are bad but because coaches will recognize that with a salary cap teams who have spent big at QB better be able to run like Thoroughbreds on offence. Or as they say....Let Russ cook. If he's throwing 5 TD's a game and not handing the ball off 40 times the Seahawks will score more points...trade off is, that they will also allow more. But which one provides better win probabilities?

Teams can give up a pile of passing yards so long as they get turnovers and sacks. Passing plays are more risky in terms of outcomes, but do tend to yield better yardage per attempt, and more teams are a lot more willing to risk passing. In the 80's when I was a kid 300 yard games were pretty rare, and 60% completions was above average. Any QB who threw more TD's than Interceptions was above average. Today most teams throw for 4000 yards a season, and any QB with a 1.5 TD to INT ratio get's replaced.

The Seahawks for example have had 2 score leads against what are 3 pretty good offences so far. So those teams will throw the ball to play catchup. Gaining 60 yards between the 20's really doesn't kill a defence if you are getting off the field allowing a field goal at worst. In a way Football is evolving like Baseball where the old triple crown of hitting was Average, Home Runs and RBI, now it's OPS, Runs scored, and WAR that are the higher valued numbers. In football it used to be total yardage. These days, it's more turnovers and points against per possession that are the better value indicators. A team who scores 35+ points ever game, and who scores fast is going to give up more yards and points than a traditional grind it out type team.

In Seattle's case they will want to correct this, but 3 games is a small sample size. The Bears are 3-0 against teams who's combined record is 1-8. The Texans are 0-3 against teams who's combined record will be 8-1.
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