[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by octothorp

Generally these races are done with some form of runoff balloting (last UCP race used IRV), with the winner not declared until someone gets 50%+1. So the wacky right vote doesn't need to worry about vote-splitting. Assuming that Jean is drawing a larger portion than Smith, and all of Smith's voters have Jean ahead of establishment conservatives on their ballot, Jean will get all of these votes.

In the one poll we have (haven't seen the poll released to the public but media members have been talking about it), Jean has 22% support, Smith 18%. (Both numbers rise to +30% when removing undecideds.) So that wing is already closing in on a combined 50%, which is a really strong starting position, and I expect them to be super-aggressive in recruiting new members.

Man, we are so ####ed.