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Old 12-01-2015, 11:34 AM   #10
Slava
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Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Calgary, Alberta
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Buzzcock View Post
I can't speak specifically to what's in the Fisher article I referenced but a more general correlation between election cycles and market performance is well known and is statistically significant. The first couple years of a term tend to underperform the latter two years. If you're worried about sample size this tends to be true not only in the US but also other western economies including Canada's.

So where's the causation between election cycle and market performance? It's believed to be due to market friendly policies being enacted as a re-election attempt approaches.

I'm not saying I buy into this and I certainly don't trade on this basis - just food for thought. Personally, I've been largely on the sidelines for over a year now as I struggle to understand the extended sluggish demand for primary materials with a continued bull run. That says bubble to me.

Having said that.....go NFC.

The election correlation in Canada doesn't appear to be as a result of the Canadian government though, its the US cycles as well. I wrote about that in another post here, and on my blog as well. I think that was back in August or September partway into the election.
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