To assume the past and present is the future is a bad approach.
I see three major flaws with your post:
1/ To assume you need a dominant industry to drive urbanization is a flawed assumption. There are few cities like Calgary, which is so dependent on one industry. In fact there are many cities that are growing rapidly in North America that don’t have a dominant industry. Some like Vancouver and southern Cal actually have pretty crappy job prospects.
2/ the world is trending towards increased urbanization. Combined with population growth in Canada this means it is a reasonable assumption is size of cities will continue to grow. I’m sure there are plenty of studies that quantify the ranges of forecasted population growth.
3/ Calgary is a very attractive city for people to move to. It was a no brainer from 2005-2014 when wages were 2x the same job elsewhere in Canada. But it’s still attractive. It has Great outdoor access, relatively cheap property, good schools, good healthcare, reasonable commute, good amenities. The only comparable cities to Calgary are Salt Lake City and Denver, which both have seen rapid population growth without oil and gas being as major a driver of their economy.
Fundamentally Calgary will change and grow. It will go through ebbs and flows. At some point we willl run out of oil or there won’t be demand for oil and Calgary will change. If that point is now we will get through it. If that is in 20 years we will get through it then.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee
It is dramatic for sure. That’s because I don’t know if you’ve heard but oil and gas drives Calgary’s economy in a very significant way. You may not have been following along or aware as to how dire things are there, or where industry is headed but let me tell you, it’s not pretty. I think Calgary is in some serious #### here and into the future. You’ll see in about 1-5 years as the financial impacts worsen.
Also, people move to where the work is. So if Calgary doesn’t adjust and move out of oil and gas, which it might and frankly which it needs to do, then things will only worsen.
If it all sounds dramatic, it’s because we are in dramatic times. You should be worried about all of this. Particularly if you own real estate in Calgary, or care about the future of this city.
But things are overly negative these days from the perspective of oil and gas. People are just ignorant of how bad it truly is and will be in the near-future, so while yes I’m being a little bit of a worry-wart / chicken little, I’m also trying to be realistic.
I have plenty of positive things to say too if you’d like to hear them haha
This post didn’t make a lot of sense to me. What do you mean it’s utter lunacy? Have you seen the jr sector crushed in energy investment? Have you noticed the rapid and highly concerning capital flight from the sector? Are you aware that those high salaries, long term incentive programs and big bonuses that oil and gas delivers on an annual basis are shrinking and going to less people? That’s less money for properties, the general economy, etc. Have you noticed the vacancy rate in downtown Calgary lately? Have you noticed that our oil and gas is now forever landlocked to the current production throughout capacities because we can’t build pipelines and fuel growth? Have you noticed the amount of energy workers leaving the city and moving to the States, or out of industry altogether into something or somewhere else? Have you noticed real estate sales dropping 15% in one year...?
Maybe you’re not that tuned into things? I have no idea what the “richness of surrounding geography” even means so please be more specific.
This is the best response to me so far. Just keep in mind the problems of the NEP are dwarfed by the problems of today. Oil and gas wasn’t viewed as this tyrannical evil business back then. But that’s a fair point, there may be growth in the next 50 years but still, have you seen that picture? It’s like constructing another downtown!
Winnipeg is 100% irrelevant when it comes to oil and gas. They have how many energy company HQ’s? They have how much reserves? Winnipeg’s economy is not based primarily on energy investment so I have no idea why you’d bring this up.
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