Quote:
Originally Posted by neo45
It misses the mark huge on some like Kulak
I feel like semi knowledgeable people simply guessing is just as accurate.
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No model will ever be able to predict everything...but it's often quite close. Read the message boards over the next few weeks and see how many people are shocked with the price of contracts. Guaranteed even very knowledgeable hockey fans would do way worse than a prediction model, as our biases are way more present.
I think the more interesting question is why are they so far off on certain contracts? Does the model just suck? Or when it misses, is that just signalling a likely steal/overpay? If Kulak was any other defenceman drafted in a the first couple rounds, would people have complained with paying $3M AAV over 3 years to a 25 year old, 4/5 D that established himself as a 20+ min guy the last couple months of the season?