Quote:
Originally Posted by PepsiFree
That's just a wacky tier system. You have a "no-tier" in your tier system!
If you look at all the movies that have made $300M+, it's a list that's pretty inclusively: superheroes, star wars, pop culture franchises (Twilight, LOTR, HP) and animated (Disney/Pixar and Dreamworks).
Anything over $200M is huge, especially for something not geared towards children.
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Right but my tiers are about the expectations, not necessarily the result.
How come with Venom and Solo, with identical "huge" $213M domestic gross, one is a big success and one is a disappointment? Because one would've been projected to hit low-tier, but hit mid-tier, and the other projected top tier, fell to mid-tier. It's just a predictive model I use to gauge relative commercial success of a movie and it's almost always spot on. Same with Logan being a runaway success at $226M and Justice League a disappointment at $229M.
I'm also saying $250M
max right now. If I had to make a bet, today, I'm not sure I would even go over $200M. It's still a Tom Cruise lead movie which, outside the Mission: Impossible franchise, his movies have struggled to break even $100M for the last 15 years. It's a sequel to a well known and loved 80's movie which should give it a boost, but it's also coming out in the middle of summer, two weeks before another sequel to a well known and loved 80's movie (Ghostbusters) and three weeks before a big original Christopher Nolan action movie. So, while it'll likely hit a decent opening weekend from all the fans, it'll also likely struggle to have legs through the rest of the summer, unless it's
really good. Before this very well received trailer I would've been nervous to even give it $150M, but this raised it's stock quite a bit.
Sorry, I just really like box office stuff lol. We do a pool at work predicting box office results, so I'm kind of deep in to it.