Quote:
Originally Posted by wireframe
How do you value a second pick then? We agree that some drafts are strong and some are weak. So you can't use value from previous drafts. There is also a huge value different between pick 31 and pick 60.
I think that the only way to set a value is to look at the player you would have taken. Now, we can't know who the Flames would have taken. They have a good idea of who they would be taking when the pick was traded but we don't have that information. So I think you can look at who the senators took as a rough approximation. And da-chief noted that if you look at the 5 players taken before and after, you can probably get close to who the Flames would have taken.
That brings us to your comment that lists are dissimilar. How similar do you think the lists are? I assume that the Flames and senators would rank all the same players and its rare that any player would be more then ten spots apart on the two lists in the 1st round. I'll guess that there is about twice as much spread in the 2nd round. That's what I mean by similar.
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Teams don't rank all the same players. I've seen drafts where a player would be ranked 1st or 2nd round by some teams and would be on other teams do not draft list. Ramzi Abid in '98 comes to mind, he was ranked in the first, went early second I think but wasn't on some teams list at all because of bad skating. The disparity can come from a player having questionable skating or character. Some teams will overlook these things and other teams will put up a red flag over it and refuse to draft that player
Players can easily be greater than 10 spots apart even in the first. A team may have a player as a 1st rounder that another team doesn't have in the first couple rounds.
People would be shocked how different the team lists are if we had access to them.