I don't buy into any forecast that puts this rut longer than 3-5 years. The replacement cost for a barrel is just too high now and demand growth hasn't stagnated significantly. I also don't buy into the bull#### about how producers have been able to reduce costs by 30-40% permanently. 30+% of production is uneconomical at these prices, there's no way this is a 20 year trough unless Saudi discovers two more Ghawars.
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