Quote:
Originally Posted by opendoor
Obviously the risk/benefit of vaccination changes drastically depending on the age, so the benefit gets less clear as you get younger. Still, there is a pretty clear benefit for all ages. In the last 120 days, about 1 in 2.5K 5-11 year olds has been hospitalized with COVID in Alberta (that's in terms of population, not infections), whereas there hasn't been a single hospitalized case among fully vaccinated in that age group. Assuming a ~30% attack rate in that period, that would suggest that not vaccinating a 5-11 year old is likely risking a 1 in 750 chance of hospitalization or a 1 in 4K chance of ICU admission from COVID in order to protect against a 1 in ~10-20K chance of myocarditis from the vaccine. For an immunologically naive kid that age, I think the math is pretty clear; you're about 10-20x more likely to have a severe case of COVID if you're unvaccinated than you are to have a serious adverse reaction after being vaccinated.
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The issue is that you’re calculating the odds assuming all things equal for all children within the age group. This does not look at the particular risk when considering a healthy child versus someone who is immunocompromised or has some other comorbidity. Unfortunately this data is not readily available considering severe outcomes from COVID stratified over age groups (if it is, I would be interested in seeing the comparative risk.)