Quote:
Originally Posted by TheIronMaiden
Am I out of the loop. Why are people so low on Pelletier?
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I guess the question is: which Flames prospects are worth more than 26th overall in the 2019 draft?
Personally, based on what I've seen, Kylington, Valimaki, and Dube have clearly established they are worth more than that. If we traded them for such a pick I would consider it to be a poor return value. So it's only reasonable Pelletier is behind them on most lists.
The next few - Parsons, Pettersson, Zavgorodny, Phillips, and naturally, Pelletier, are where it gets murky as none of them have established themselves as worth "more" than such a draft pick. Put another way, if these four were
another team's prospecy, which of these would I be excited to trade that pick for at the present moment?
- Pelletier was ACTUALLY drafted at 26 in the 2019 draft, so that's obviously his present value.
- Parsons has star goaltender potential, and his play, whether for the Memorial Cup or for WJC Gold tells me that he comes up huge in big moments. However he has had a down year statistically (although Stockton's defensive play isn't without blame) and his value has probably dipped below that mark until he has a strong pro season to show he's for real. I'd be highly nervous trading that pick for him if he were another team's prospect, but I really like his potential.
- Pettersson had one of the most impressive 18yo seasons in the NCAA and while he didn't quite hit the elusive PPG mark by season's end, there is reason to think he has all the tools and intelligence to really be a successful pro. My biggest complaint about him is actually that he's a LHS LW, not unlike Pelletier and Gaudreau and Mangiapane and Tkachuk and apparently based on usage, Bennett and Dube although I see those two as centres, so from a Flames-centric perspective he'd have to really knock the ball out of the park to advance up the lineup
- Phillips has been rock solid at every level and has a pretty complete skillset. But he is very light and needs to get a good bit stronger to crack the lineup. The biggest question mark seems to be if the Flames are working with him on those strength areas, or letting him be. It's be unlikely he'd have much success in the NHL if he stays at his current weight as he's not exactly a Gaudreau type superstar talent, though I actually think he could be a productive middle sixer.
- Zavgorodny is an interesting one. I see that no one else is quite as high on him as I am, but there's much to like about him:
1) I felt he was the single most impressive Flames forward prospect in preseason. More than Dube or Mangiapane even, despite being 18 years old. A buzzsaw player with a very explosive offensive skillset and some real speed
2) He was one of Rimouski's better penalty killers and also had some absolutely incredible five on five metrics. There's some real two way upside here. Even if he doesn't make it as an obvious producer, he could be a Paul Byron type.
3) Early on in the year, when he was on the top powerplay and the top ES line, he started off on an absolute tear with 26 points in 15 games. Eventually he lost his role to someone else and finished the year on the second powerplay and the middle six at ES, but this seems to have more to do with the fact that Alexis Lafreniere, who plays the same position, is being touted as a clearcut first overall type in the 2020 draft.
4) Unlike Pelletier and Pettersson, he's a right handed shot, which would give him a leg up on all but Phillips in actually cracking our roster and special teams during the Gaudreau/Tkachuk/Bennett/Mangiapane/Dube/Monahan/Backlund/Jankowski "era".
The obvious knocks on him would be
1) Size. No getting around it, he's a smaller player. But so are Pelletier, Pettersson and Phillips.
2) Production. After the hot start he went ice cold. Pelletier and Pettersson seem to have the edge in production last year. I don't see this as a primarily player issue, more a team issue as Rimouski had a LOT of overage players plus the aformentioned Lafreniere. More opportunity should open up next season. And even more still, once we get him into Stockton.
3) Russian factor. I don't really think this one's big... the guy's actually training in Calgary in his offseason, even though he was too injured to participate in dev camp. Who really knows, though.
So overall I've got him ranked at the top of that second tier, just ahead of Pelletier, but I don't expect him to garner many votes other than my own.
My second tier goes
Zavgorodny
Pelletier
Phillips
Pettersson
Parsons
My third tier is the guys with huge question marks but at least one intruiging skill, who could be pretty interesting or useful NHLers if they turn out and take a big, but
necessary developmental step:
Nikolaev
Pospisil
Zagidulin
Wolf
Tuulola
Koumontzis
Schneider
Sveningsson
Lerby? (not too familiar)
And then the rest