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Originally Posted by Nadal Fan
I have more faith in IT Chapter 2 to be honest but Jumanji releasing in December will certainly help it. I feel like audiences are kinda waiting for something more adult this year and IT will scratch that itch for them. Both will do well but your right will be hard for them to match their first movie grosses.
With Episode 9 I was using Episode 7 as a guide but giving recent Star Wars performances at the box office we could be looking at the $600 million range (which is still great for any other movie). I assume everyone who complained about The Last Jedi will still see this one but I never thought Solo would bomb so you just never know.
For me I was debating between Hobbs & Shaw and Joker and could go either way for that 5th spot. For me Joker got a lot of trailer views and likes and shares on Youtube and Twitter which was what swayed it for me. Plus he is such a huge draw, the last movie he was in was Suicide Squad which everyone supposedly hated yet still made insane amounts of money.
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The Joker has a $55 million budget and will be opening at film festivals prior to its box office release. If a movie like that can make it to the $250 mil domestic mark (which would likely translate into an 800 or so international), that would be a massive win.
Opening in film festivals could mean they are going for a more specific audience than usual...or if the movie is good, it could create massive word of mouth.
I'm not sure movies like Suicide Squad are comparable. That was a big loud action movie aimed at a general audience. This looks like something we've never seen before, which is a comic book movie aimed at a thinking arthouse type audience. Logan might be the closest comparable, which did $226 million. So it's not unheard of for a comic book movie aimed a narrow audience to do well.