Quote:
Originally Posted by GGG
Yes you can, the states aren’t independent events they are heavily correlated. It is very unlikely you Win Florida but don’t win Pennsylvania. Those would be very unlikely outcomes.
Remember that an 80% chance means that 1 in 5 times the underdog wins. That’s a lot. Flip a coin twice and get two heads, Trump wins. (That’s 75% rather than 80%). That isn’t meaningless it provides you a good idea of what’s likely to happen.
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I think that was the big mistake in 2016 though. The thought was was if Clinton was up a certain % nationally, then it is very unlikely she would lose traditional blue states like WI/MI/PA. But Trump's unique popularity in those states bucked that trend and broke the models.
There's a lot of evidence those 3 states are safe this time around including the 2018 election results.