On another polling note YouGov has Biden up by 12 nationally (54-42), a result that to me is not consistent with a low single digit lead in the battlegrounds like Pennsylvania. YouGov also has Biden up 8 in PA, which almost tracks (I wouldn’t expect Pennsylvania to be 4% more Republican than the country but maybe 2 or 3 points, so it’s likely “close enough”).
Meanwhile Insider Advantage (a GOP leaning pollster) has Trump up 2 in Pennsylvania, which has raised some eyebrows as the polling “consensus” has Biden ahead by around 5 or 6.
And Reuters\Ipsos just released a poll with Biden +5 (50-45) in Pennsylvania, not materially different from their last poll at +4.
I guess what I’m saying is... we have 3 pictures of the race in Pennsylvania, which is undoubtedly the most important state in terms of the electoral college (Trump can’t win without it and Biden is worse than a coin flip to win if he doesn’t carry it). So is Biden ahead by low single digits such that he is a normal polling error from losing? Is he ahead by 8 such that he is basically guaranteed to carry the state and with it the White House? Or is he slightly behind/statistically tied in a state where a close count may result in legal challenges that find their way all the way to the US Supreme Court?
I think only one of these pictures can be right. I guess you toss them in the average but it seems to me someone will be embarrassed on November 4th. We just don’t know who.
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