Quote:
Originally Posted by Strange Brew
Considering the importance of the position, a 38% hit rate for the first round would suggest drafting a goalie in that round isn't really all that stupid.
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While that is true, the value of drafting a goalie in the first round must also be weighed against the value of those picks for selecting at other positions. Choosing to draft a goalie in Round One also means choosing to forego selecting a forward or a defensemen who could reasonably be a fixture in the lineup within two years.
I tend to think what we are seeing now is the reservation by clubs of their first round capital only for those goalies who appear as close to "sure-things" as possible. Since 2012 only four goalies have been drafted in the first round: Andrei Vasilevsky in 2012, Ilya Samsonov in 2015, Jake Oettinger in 2017 and Spencer Knight in 2019. While a 38% hit-rate looks okay, this will also become balanced against the total ratio of goalies picked relative to other players: four goalies in 243 selections (1.6%) will help to ensure that the hit-rate remains high.
The moral of the story is that a team should only draft a goalie in Round One if they are certain that he will be an impact player. The stakes are much, much lower for drafting forwards and defensemen.