Quote:
Originally Posted by OMG!WTF!
Lots of people time the market, predict the market or otherwise beat the market in trading. I think you're getting mixed up with knowing what's going to happen ahead of time and reacting to what is happening. Trend lines are without question remarkably predictive. The trend line on the s&p chart starts on Donald Trump's first day on the job 2 years ago. It's no coincidence the market dropped exactly to the penny of that line. It was obvious to many people the market would bounce off of that line today. If it breaks down from that line it will be a bit of a tumble. You don't have to know if the whole Donald Trump effect is still in play or not. It might be but the narrative is much different than a year ago. Tax cuts and jobs are replaced with trade wars and debt. But the reality is we don''t have to know. We'll never be smarter than a hundred million traders. You just have to watch trend lines and react appropriately.
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I think you're confusing my saying that you can't predict these things, with not being able to beat the market. I do think that you can do better than average, otherwise I wouldn't do what I do, but that doesn't mean that this weeks pullback was foreseeable,