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Old 07-15-2017, 09:29 AM   #12
The Cobra
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Join Date: Jun 2017
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Enoch Root View Post
I agree that 5 X 5.5 sounds about right

But considering his age, and the fact that he bleeds red and should be a lifer, I would propose an 8 year deal.

Usually, longer deals mean a higher AAV, but in this case, because it would take him to age 36, it should mean a lower AAV (those last 3 years should be worth less).

I would propose 8 by $4m (it might take $4.5m).

That would bring down the AAV to a fantastic number, and make him a Flame for life (which he should be).

There is risk with having to pay him $4m when he is 36 of course, but it is well worth it because we get him cheaper now, while we're competing, and hopefully $4m isn't as punitive 9 years from now.
5x$5.5 + $27.5M

8x$4M=$32M.

That would mean getting him for his last 3 years for $4.5M. That's not going to happen.

The nature of signing UFA's is that you need to may may more than a player is worth for his later years. Assuming Backs wants maximum dollars (which is by no means a certainty), he'll command 8 years at at least $6M. Because he would get that on the open market easily in a weak UFA year

I expect he'll take less, or at least I hope so, he's an important part of the team going forward.

But I can't imagine there is any deal which starts with a $4M AAV. $5.5M would be the least amount I can see him signing for.
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