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Old 01-05-2022, 12:22 PM   #35
blankall
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame View Post
I think we're closer to war than we have been in a long time, but I still don't think it's likely. All of these warring countries are so hard baked into globalism and economic entanglement it would be a catastrophic experiment in self-harm.
I actually don't think we are closer to war.

I don't see Israel attacking Iran, because Iran has Israel surrounded in proxy armies with a plethora of cheap soviet era weapons. Israel, despite their new leader rattling his sabre, seems to be going the diplomacy route. They've put a lot of effort into setting up relations with surrounding nations. Their goal is likely to cut off Iran diplomatically, which means isolating Iran from Russia.

That may not be all that difficult of a goal, as Russia seems to have had enough of Iran's meddling in Syria:

https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/is...m-syria-683814

On top of that, the Arab League, which is in conflict with Iran, is courting Assad back to their side:

https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/06/01...b-world-again/

I don't see China attacking Taiwan, as their current goals seem to be economically based. China can't afford the economic repercussions of war. At the end of the day, the USA and Japan are the #1 and #3 consumers of Chinese goods (with Hong Kong being #2...guess that's still kind of separate):

https://tradingeconomics.com/china/exports-by-country

As for Russia invading the Ukraine....well that's the most likely. Not the whole thing, but maybe a part, as Putin is nuts. Even then, that would be ridiculously damaging to Russia's current relationships. The Crimea was a one off, which can be tolerated once in a generation. Habitually invading is another thing.
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