[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by Huntingwhale

Ever since I moved to Poland I have been privy to the drama that goes on in Eastern Europe with a front seat view. Much of it simply doesn't make the North American news other than a couple sentences. For example the Polish border crises with Belarus before the holidays barely got any attention in North American media, but as a huge deal here. My wife is also Ukrainian so I get a lot of the scoop of what goes on in her country. Not to mention there is a huge amount of Ukrainians working in Poland. So everyone here is very aware of what is going on in Ukraine.

I will start by saying that it's pretty personal for us that no additional armed conflict happens in Ukraine. Not only because war is stupid, but my wife's family lives 2km from the Ukraine/Russian border just north of Kharkiv. If an invasion does happen away from the Eastern border (where most of the conflict is now), her family's village is the very first stop for the Russians on their way to enter Kharkiv (which is predominantly Russian speaking).

Last time we went to visit the family's village it was pretty surreal for myself being that close to Russia. As her Dad drove us back to Kharkiv, the highway we were on straddles the border line between both countries. We were on the Ukrainian side, and literally the field on the other side of the highway was Russia. All I could think about was if war does break out, this is the same field those tank will come rumbling through.

So we are keeping an eye on the situation very intently. We are moving back to Canada later this year, but my wife wants to go back to visit her friends and family before we go, pack all her stuff and hang out in her city for a bit. We've already had talks that we are going to watch this situation intently, and there's no way I can possibly let her go back in the midst of an armed conflict where her city is possibly on the front lines. We just don't know what's going to happen, but again it's pretty personal for us what the outcome of this conflict is going to be.

I'd be lying if I said I'm not happy that NATO and Western allies are being unified and supporting Ukraine. Maybe not with troops. But with supplies, training, weapons, etc. Proxy war still sucks. But it's better than doing absolutely nothing. This is also a different Ukrainian army than when Crimea was taken. Much better equipped, trained and has Western backing. But still, I don't like their chances in a full scale invasion. I also don't think Russia would be able to sustain a long term attack. Apparently one of the sanctions that will be imposed is cutting them of the SWIFT banking system. If that happens, goodbye Oligarch money around the world. Goodbye payments to International Russian business companies and workers. Goodbye to the whole reason Putin and his cronies keeps themselves in power (aka money).

My opinion is that it's a huge bluff that Putin is trying to pull in attempting to gain his demands. However he also ####ed up. During Trump's and even Obama's tenure, it seemed like NATO was king of fading into obscurity. Especially when Trump made rumblings of disbanding it. But now more than ever, NATO and their allies seem stronger and infinitely more united. Putin ####ed up is miscalculating all this. Psychopaths like him have too much pride to just fold their cards and back off. It's simply not a part of Russian culture to just back off, admit being wrong and apologize with your tail between your legs for the world to see. They go down swinging more often than not.

Like I told my wife last night, I'm not a huge Biden supporter by any means, but I thank Jesus everyday that it's him who won the US election and not Trump. Don't even want to envision what would be the result of all this if that goof was still president.

So in conclusion and to respond to the OP, I sure as #### hope this is not the year where armed conflict breaks out around the world!

The thought of armed conflict is obviously really scary, given the history of that region.

But the bolded is why I firmly believe nothing will come of it. Putin is sabre rattling. His support comes from the Oligarchs, and if his actions threaten their money (which it will) they will remove him.