Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community - View Single Post - [GT] Day 12 (PM of Tuesday Feb 20

getbak · 02-20-2018, 02:31 PM

Looking at the curling scenarios:

No matter what happens, the Canadian Men are guaranteed to at least play in a tiebreaker.

If Canada beats Denmark (tonight at 10:05pm MT), they'll finish in second place regardless of what happens in the other games. If Canada loses, there are a variety of scenarios for the final standings, but they'll all see Canada play at least one more game.

A Canada win will likely see them play the winner of GB-USA in the 2-3 semifinal (although, there are some scenarios where a USA win could lead to tiebreakers for third place).

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The Canadian Women still have a chance, but they must win their final two games against GB and Russia.

They play GB later today at 5:05pm MT. If they lose, there's no scenario where they can possibly make the playoffs.

Right now:
Korea has clinched a playoff spot with a 6-1 record, and can't be caught by Canada.

Sweden has a 5-2 record with two games remaining against China and the USA (both at 4-4).

Japan has a 5-3 record with one game remaining against the 2-5 Swiss team.

GB has a 5-3 record with one game remaining against Canada.

The easiest scenario for a Canadian playoff spot is for Canada and Sweden to each win their final two games. This would see Canada and GB finish with 5-4 records and China and the USA with 4-5 records.

If that happens, Canada's playoff position would depend on the result of Japan's final game against Switzerland.
If Japan wins its final game, they'd move to 6-3 and finish 3rd. Canada and GB would then play a tiebreaker game for the final spot in the semifinal.

If Japan loses, they'd finish with a 5-4 record, tied with Canada and GB, which would trigger the three-way tiebreaker formula for the final two playoff spots. In that scenario, I believe Canada would get third place because of two wins over Japan and GB. Japan and GB would then play a tiebreaker for fourth place.

If one of the USA or China defeat Sweden, it could create a multi-way tie scenario for the final playoff spot. I'm not sure how those tiebreakers would play out for Canada.

There is one crazy possible scenario that could see a 6 way tie for second place: SWE loses to CHN and USA; JPN loses to SUI; CAN defeats GBR and OAR. If that exact series of events took place, SWE, CHN, USA, JPN, CAN, and GBR would all finish with identical 5-4 records. I have no idea what the tiebreaker procedure would be in that case.

If there's one potential bright side for Homan's rink, it's that their final two games are on sheets D (GBR) & C (OAR). Sheet A is the one that's been giving them the biggest troubles (3 of their 4 losses have been on A). Their big win over the States was on D and their win over the Swiss was on C.

02-20-2018, 02:31 PM	#2
getbak Franchise Player Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Calgary, AB Exp:	Looking at the curling scenarios: No matter what happens, the Canadian Men are guaranteed to at least play in a tiebreaker. If Canada beats Denmark (tonight at 10:05pm MT), they'll finish in second place regardless of what happens in the other games. If Canada loses, there are a variety of scenarios for the final standings, but they'll all see Canada play at least one more game. A Canada win will likely see them play the winner of GB-USA in the 2-3 semifinal (although, there are some scenarios where a USA win could lead to tiebreakers for third place). ---------- The Canadian Women still have a chance, but they must win their final two games against GB and Russia. They play GB later today at 5:05pm MT. If they lose, there's no scenario where they can possibly make the playoffs. Right now: Korea has clinched a playoff spot with a 6-1 record, and can't be caught by Canada. Sweden has a 5-2 record with two games remaining against China and the USA (both at 4-4). Japan has a 5-3 record with one game remaining against the 2-5 Swiss team. GB has a 5-3 record with one game remaining against Canada. The easiest scenario for a Canadian playoff spot is for Canada and Sweden to each win their final two games. This would see Canada and GB finish with 5-4 records and China and the USA with 4-5 records. If that happens, Canada's playoff position would depend on the result of Japan's final game against Switzerland. If Japan wins its final game, they'd move to 6-3 and finish 3rd. Canada and GB would then play a tiebreaker game for the final spot in the semifinal. If Japan loses, they'd finish with a 5-4 record, tied with Canada and GB, which would trigger the three-way tiebreaker formula for the final two playoff spots. In that scenario, I believe Canada would get third place because of two wins over Japan and GB. Japan and GB would then play a tiebreaker for fourth place. If one of the USA or China defeat Sweden, it could create a multi-way tie scenario for the final playoff spot. I'm not sure how those tiebreakers would play out for Canada. There is one crazy possible scenario that could see a 6 way tie for second place: SWE loses to CHN and USA; JPN loses to SUI; CAN defeats GBR and OAR. If that exact series of events took place, SWE, CHN, USA, JPN, CAN, and GBR would all finish with identical 5-4 records. I have no idea what the tiebreaker procedure would be in that case. If there's one potential bright side for Homan's rink, it's that their final two games are on sheets D (GBR) & C (OAR). Sheet A is the one that's been giving them the biggest troubles (3 of their 4 losses have been on A). Their big win over the States was on D and their win over the Swiss was on C. __________________ Turn up the good, turn down the suck!