[rubecube]

NFC West

LA Rams
Rube’s projection: 10-6

Vegas O/U Win Total: 10.5 (O +130, U -155)
2018 Record: 13-3
2018 PEW: 11.2 (-1.8 differential)
Fumble recovery rate (FRR): 65.8% (+15.8% vs. NFL average)
Adjusted games lost (AGL): 39.6 (-38.6 vs NFL Average)
Net penalty yards (NPY): -26 (-25.3 vs. NFL Average)
One-score games: 7, .857 winning percentage (+35.7% vs NFL Average)

Everything I said about the Cowboys earlier goes double for the Rams. This isn’t to say the Rams aren’t a good team, but none of these numbers are sustainable, and as they fall back to Earth, so will the Rams’ record. They could still very well go 11-5 but 9-7 or 10-6 seems far more likely.

Seattle Seahawks
Rube’s projection: 10-6

Vegas O/U Win Total: 8.5 (O -109, U -109)
2018 Record: 10-6
2018 PEW: 10.1 (+0.1 differential)
Fumble recovery rate (FRR): 63.6% (+13.6% vs. NFL average)
Adjusted games lost (AGL): 65.7 (-12.5 vs NFL Average)
Net penalty yards (NPY): 22 (+22.7 vs. NFL Average)
One-score games: 11, .455 winning percentage (-4.5% vs NFL Average)

The Seahawks are currently +315 to win the NFC West and I think that’s a more valuable play than the over, but I’d also take the over as well. Yes, they were a bit lucky in terms of FRR and AGL, but they were also slightly unlucky in one-score games which sort of evens it out. I think they’re a solid 10-win team that could be an 11-win team with a bit of luck.

San Francisco 49ers
Rube’s projection: 8-8

Vegas O/U Win Total: 8 (O -121, U +102)
2018 Record: 4-12
2018 PEW: 5.6 (+1.6 differential)
Fumble recovery rate (FRR): 46.2% (-3.8% vs. NFL average)
Adjusted games lost (AGL): 105.5 (+27.3 vs NFL Average)
Net penalty yards (NPY): 29 (+29.7 vs. NFL Average)
One-score games: 9, .333 winning percentage (-16.7% vs NFL Average)

Here’s a team that got absolutely railroaded by the football gods last year. While you could make the case for 7-9 and a value play on the under, I think positive regression in injuries and one-score game victories should pull them to 8-8.

Arizona Cardinals
Rube’s projection: 3-13

Vegas O/U Win Total: 5(O -133, U +112)
2018 Record: 3-13
2018 PEW: 2.8 (-0.2 differential)
Fumble recovery rate (FRR): 51.2% (+1.2% vs. NFL average)
Adjusted games lost (AGL): 95.6 (+17.4 vs NFL Average)
Net penalty yards (NPY): 4 (+4.7 vs. NFL Average)
One-score games: 6, .333 winning percentage (-16.7% vs NFL Average)

I just don’t see anything in the numbers to suggest any kind of improvement this season. I do think they will be a better team but it won’t show up in their record. They may win 4 games instead of 3 but I feel pretty comfortable taking the under here and it’s good value.