NFC East
Dallas Cowboys
Rube’s 2019 Projection: 7-9
Vegas O/U Win Total: 9 (O +103, U -122)
2018 record: 10-6
2018 PEW: 8.4 (-1.6 differential)
Fumble recovery rate (FRR): 56.5% (+6.5% vs. NFL average)
Adjusted games lost (AGL): 78.5 (+0.3 vs NFL Average)
Net penalty yards (NPY): -205 (-204.3 vs. NFL Average)
One-score games: 12, .750 winning percentage (+25% vs NFL Average)
FADE! FADE! FADE! I love it when the data backs up my biases. This team was a total fraud last year. They finished 9th in the league despite being ranked 21st in DVOA. They won one-score games at a totally unsustainable clip (even with Amari Cooper) and their PEW differential is in that lose 2-3 more games than the previous season range. They very well may buck the trend and put in a more complete performance this year because there definitely is talent there and they have a pretty easy schedule for the first 3 weeks, but don’t be surprised if we’re speculating about Jason Garret’s job by the middle of November. There isn’t really any value to be had in betting the under unfortunately but I’d be shocked if they win more than 8 games.
Philadelphia Eagles
Rube’s 2019 Projection: 9-7
Vegas O/U Win Total: 9.5 (O -188, +156)
2018 record: 9-7
2018 PEW: 8.5 (-1 differential)
Fumble recovery rate (FRR): 45.3% (+6.5% vs. NFL average)
Adjusted games lost (AGL): 118.5 (+40.3 vs NFL Average)
Net penalty yards (NPY): 143 (+143.7 vs. NFL Average)
One-score games: 12, .500 winning percentage (= NFL Average)
The Cleveland Browns of the NFC. Lots of flash offseason acquisitions and potential, but poor underlying numbers. You can certainly say the Eagles were unlucky in the fumble and injury department (2nd highest AGL in the NFL last year) but that doesn’t address the fact that the team was kind of ass even when they were healthy. Pederson and Groh’s offensive game plans and play-calling were tremendously uninspired for the first half of the year and the defense couldn’t get off the field on third and longs. From my biased, personal perspective, I think they’re a better team than they were last year but I also think that taking the under here isn’t a completely unreasonable bet based on the numbers.
Washington Professional Football Team
Rube’s 2019 Projection: 6-10
Vegas O/U Win Total: 6.5 (O +165, U -199)
2018 record: 7-9
2018 PEW: 5.7 (-1.3 differential)
Fumble recovery rate (FRR): 59.5 (+9.5% vs. NFL average)
Adjusted games lost (AGL): 99.3 (+21.1 vs NFL Average)
Net penalty yards (NPY): -217 (-216.3 vs. NFL Average)
One-score games: 6, .667 winning percentage (+16.7% vs NFL Average)
This was a team who had some rough injury luck last year but who also just wasn’t very good and have a very mediocre coaching staff. It’s tough to see anything in the numbers that suggest a turnaround this season, and they’re probably closer to 5-11 than 7-9, so I’m splitting the difference with 6-10. There is zero value to be found here.
NY Giants
Rube’s 2019 Projection: 7-9
Vegas O/U Win Total: 6 (O -103, U -115)
2018 record: 5-11
2018 PEW: 6.9 (+1.9 differential)
Fumble recovery rate (FRR): 40 (-10% vs. NFL average)
Adjusted games lost (AGL): 53.3 (-24.9 vs NFL Average)
Net penalty yards (NPY): -32 (-31.3 vs. NFL Average)
One-score games: 12, .333 winning percentage (-27.3% vs NFL Average)
So the Giants might not have been as bad as we thought they were. Don’t get me wrong, they were bad, and I’m still convinced their front office has no clue what it’s doing, but this was a team that was unlucky to not be 8-8 and I don’t think it’s out of the question for them this year. I’m going 7-9 to be on the safe side but I would feel comfortable betting the over on this line.
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