[rubecube]

AFC South

Houston Texans
Rube’s 2019 Projection: 10-6

Vegas O/U Win Total: 8.5 (O -110, U -108)
2018 record – 11-5
2018 PEW: 10.3 (-0.7 differential)
Fumble recovery rate (FRR): 57.8% (+7.8% vs. NFL average)
Adjusted games lost (AGL): 89.6 (+11.4 vs NFL Average)
Net penalty yards (NPY): 158 (+158.7 vs. NFL Average)
One-score games: 11, .545 winning percentage (+4.5% vs. NFL Average)

I’d be a bit more confident in this projection if not for the Andrew Luck retirement. This is a team that was lucky in almost every single category except injuries, so a repeat 11-win season doesn’t seem likely. That said, I don’t see any realistic way they finish with less than 9 wins considering who else is in the division. The over isn’t great value, but it’s close to even money and it’s a likely winner.

Indianapolis Colts
Rube’s 2019 Projection: 8-8

Vegas O/U Win Total: 7.5 (O -109, U -109)
2018 record – 10-6
2018 PEW: 10.3 (+0.3 differential)
Fumble recovery rate (FRR): 46.5% (-3.5% vs. NFL average)
Adjusted games lost (AGL): 116.5 (+38.3 vs NFL Average)
Net penalty yards (NPY): 162 (+162.7 vs. NFL Average)
One-score games: 8, .500 winning percentage (= to NFL Average)

Based on the numbers, the Colts should haven been the favourites to win the AFC South this year and they were…until Andrew Luck retired. This is still a talented team on both sides of the ball, with good coaching, and a capable quarterback, so I still think the over is a good play here but you’ll probably be sweating it for most of the year.

Tennessee Titans
Rube’s 2019 Projection: 8-8

Vegas O/U Win Total: 8 (O -104, U -114)
2018 record – 9-7
2018 PEW: 8.2 (-0.8 differential)
Fumble recovery rate (FRR): 56.3% (+6.3% vs. NFL average)
Adjusted games lost (AGL): 68.7 (-9.5 vs NFL Average)
Net penalty yards (NPY): 257 (+257.7 vs. NFL Average)
One-score games: 7, .571 winning percentage (+7.1% vs NFL Average)
The Titans defied the odds last year by being one of the few teams to not regress negatively based on the previous year. The reason? The football gods decided to hand them another largely fortunate seasons. The odds on that happening for a third consecutive season aren’t great. It’s rare to see a team get lucky in every single one of the categories I’m tracking but the Titans did just that. 8-8 seems reasonable but if they regress negatively beyond the average in some of these areas, they could easily go 6-10.

Jacksonville Jaguars
Rube’s 2019 Projection: 7-9

Vegas O/U Win Total: 8 (O -113, U -105)
2018 record – 5-11
2018 PEW: 5.7 (+0.7 differential)
Fumble recovery rate (FRR): 39% (-11% vs. NFL average)
Adjusted games lost (AGL): 104.6 (+26.4 vs NFL Average)
Net penalty yards (NPY): -377 (-257.7 vs. NFL Average)
One-score games: 8, .250 winning percentage (-25% vs NFL Average)

The Jags weren’t just a little unlucky last year, they were one of the unluckiest teams in the NFL. I’m trying to be a bit conservative with these projections which is why I went with 7-9 here, but I think the Jags are a darkhorse in the AFC and betting on them to win the AFC South is one of those sneaky bets that could pay well (odds are down on that right now due to the Luck injury, so I can’t attest to the value).