Here's some comments on the fuzzy logic with which I rank guys.
Potential star forwards are judged on ceiling. It's not that hard to say who these guys are, as almost all NHL star forwards put up high points in previous levels and most were high draft picks.
For goalies and defensemen I put little faith in "ceiling", as in my experience those tend to be very unreliable projections. So mostly it becomes about how close they are. That's why it's Ortio over Gillies for me. I don't even try to compare them to each other.
(This would be somewhat different if we had real blue-chip defensive prospects, but I don't see for example Kyllington as one... maybe later.)
With forwards beyond the star level you want a steady flow of ELC:s and RFA:s to keep the team affordable, so likelihood of making it is again relevant. The difference to goalies/defenseman is that it's a bit easier to guess from further away which guys are going to make it and what kind of an impact they might have. In essence, with forward prospects you can add "floor" to the equation.
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