Just saying what Scott Barlow said:
Quote:
The yield curve also retains its reputation as an effective predictor of U.S. economic recessions. A curve inversion – when the 10-year yield falls below the two-year yield – has preceded all recent U.S. recessions.
Importantly, the yield curve was not as widely followed by strategists and investors when it last signalled a recession ahead of the financial crisis. There has historically been a 14-month average delay between a curve inversion and a recession, but with more market participants following the yield curve now, markets are likely to react much more strongly if it does invert.
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