Quote:
Originally Posted by Strange Brew
Bingo,
Appreciate the time and effort pt into this. Two thoughts around the assumption:
As has been mentioned, if looking at arena only, no reason it should take 5 years.
Non hockey revenue of 30%. This seems like an important driver here, and I have no idea how to estimate. How did you come up with 30%?
I do think franchise value appreciation is relevant. Yes requires a sale to monetize, and there is risk over whether values will continue to appreciate. But those are just factors to consider IMO.
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30% was honestly a plug to get the investment back to zero using the Flames offer, and a starting point, and the biggest variable in the model as I had Edmonton to set ticket prices and the ticket surcharge
The franchise value comes down to what I'd do. If I owed the Flames (or a portion) I'd see it as a legacy item for my family that would never be sold and therefore not a true investment figure.
And as I said it's a pretty small year over year change to ponder vs the losses of the investment to build an arena. Even if it went up by 5% a year over the next five years you'd only see the value at an uptick of roughly $85M vs the $285M investment hit to build the thing on their own.