Kenney wouldn't have won if Albertans generally thought it was going to be a government of wingnuts. That's why Notley lost - the sense was that she was not governing moderately, that the NDP were a bunch of ideologues who thought "social license" and those sorts of pie in the sky ideas were compelling. The pitch was sober, business-focused, "Alberta Advantage" stuff - don't you worry, we'll get back to the good times in the early 2010s and avoid farcical embarrassments like the spectacle of the government suing itself to avoid losing hundreds of millions of dollars associated with PPAs.
That same aversion to farcical embarrassment, which Smith has taken to lengths previously unheard of, is precisely why Notley will win this time.
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