Quote:
Originally Posted by The Fisher Account
People fixated on the Berrios swap.
This team can't score runs. That's a bigger issue.
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I will absolutely fixate on the Berrios swap (in addition to the ongoing fixation on the anemic offense).
Analytics are great for baseball over the course of a huge 162 game season. The law of large numbers always wins, so it makes sense to make decisions based on the numbers for the whole season. Typically, you'll have an edge.
What analytics fail at are they are less reliable in small samples, and do not take in to account any human element. Things such as emotion, momentum (a very real thing in sports) confidence, etc.
The Twins gaining a confidence boost from having Berrios lifted when he was dealing. The Jays feeling uncertainty and confusion at the move, losing confidence in the process.
Anyone who has ever played a competitive sport can put themselves in those players shoes (on both sides) and confidently say that in those situations you need to shelf the math and use common sense based on what your senses are telling you.