Quote:
Originally Posted by Macindoc
OK, let's do the numbers. Over 40 years, the Flames should have made the 2nd round 10 times, and actually did so 8 times. They should have made the 3rd round 5 times, and actually did so 4 times. They should have made the finals 2.5 times, and actually did so 3 times. They should have won the SCFs once, and did exactly that.
So, statistically, the Flames have historically been almost exactly average.
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Uhh, you can't just look at it like that, since back in the eighties 4 out of 5 teams in the Flames division made the playoffs. Ffffine, I'll do the math...
From 1981 to 1991 four out five teams in Flames division made the playoffs. That means 8.8 expected playoffs. Flames actually
made the playoffs all 11 times.
Expected round wins vs actual:
1st: 4.4 vs 6
2nd: 2.2 vs 3
3rd: 1.1 vs 2
cup: 0.55 vs 1
From 1992 to 1995, four out of six teams in Flames division made the playoffs.
They make the playoffs 3 times, when 2.66 is expected.
Expected round wins vs actual:
1st: 1.33 vs 0
2nd: 0.66 vs 0
3rd: 0.33 vs 0
cup: 0.16 vs 0
From 1996 to 1998 4 out of 7 teams made the playoffs.
Flames make the playoffs once, expected 1.71
Expected round wins vs actual:
1st: 0.86 vs 0
2nd: 0.43 vs 0
3rd: 0.21 vs 0
cup: 0.11 vs 0
From 1999 to 2000 it was 8 out of 13 teams. Flames don't make the playoffs, expected appearance 1.23.
Expected round wins vs actual:
1st: 0.62 vs 0
2nd: 0.31 vs 0
3rd: 0.15 vs 0
cup: 0.08 vs 0
From 2001 to 2013, 8 out of 15 teams made the playoffs, but one season was lost to a lockout. Flames make the playoffs 5 times, expected 6.4.
Expected round wins vs actual:
1st: 3.2 vs 1
2nd: 1.6 vs 1
3rd: 0.8 vs 1
cup: 0.4 vs 0
2014 to 2017 8 out of 14 teams made the playoffs from the Flames conference. Flames
made the playoffs twice, expected 2.29.
Expected round wins vs actual:
1st: 1.14 vs 1
2nd: 0.57 vs 0
3rd: 0.29 vs 0
cup: 0.14 vs 0
2018 to 2020 we're back to 8 out 15 teams. Flames
make the playoffs twice, expected 1.6.
Expected round wins vs actual:
1st: 0.8 vs 0
2nd: 0.4 vs 0
3rd: 0.2 vs 0
cup: 0.1 vs 0
To sum up, expectations (rounded numbers) vs reality:
Playoff appearances: 25 vs 24.
1st round wins: 12 vs 8
2nd round wins: 6 vs 4
3rd round wins: 3 vs 3
Cups: 1.5 vs 1.
Well, turns out you're not completely off base, but there is a pretty noticeable shortage in 1st and 2nd round wins. Of course the real issue is that almost all of that success happened over 30 years ago. I bolded the areas where the team actually met or exceeded the expectation for that stretch, and it's almost all pre 1991.
Here's expectations vs reality after 1991, when the San Jose Sharks joined the league.
Playoff appearances: 14.3 vs 13
1st round wins: 7.1 vs 2
2nd round wins: 3.6 vs 1
3rd round wins: 1.8 vs 1
Cups: 0.9 vs 0
So yeah. What we're missing is most of our expected first round wins. Lack of first round wins of course translates into a shortage of later round wins, but really the first round is where the team has fell short. That shortage in 1st round wins is the difference between "at least one round won every 4 years" and "at least one round won every 15 years", and that's what hurts. It's what turns the team from "sort of average" to "winning a playoff once in a hockey player generation".
I guess what I'm saying we should really hate the Sharks more. It's all their fault.