Interesting article that evaluates Saudi Arabia's market share, which apparently hasn't really eroded all that much at all since 1994, and explores the idea that OPEC's decision has hugely backfired on them:
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I suspect if Saudi Arabia were able to travel back in time to OPEC’s November 2014 meeting, the oil markets would look very different today. Because at that meeting the group made a decision that has thus far proven to be very costly to OPEC members.
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Was this a miscalculation on the Saudis’ part, or is there a deeper strategy at play? I firmly believe they failed to anticipate how sharply oil prices would drop. I think they believed that oil prices could fall somewhat below $75/bbl for a short period of time, and that would be enough to bankrupt a lot of the shale oil companies and allow OPEC to recapture market share. Instead, the shale oil producers slashed costs, and while some producers have gone bankrupt — and other bankruptcies are undoubtedly on the way — shale oil production has proven to be much more resilient than the Saudis and OPEC expected.
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http://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/...iscalculation/