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Old 11-30-2015, 10:50 PM   #6
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Originally Posted by Buzzcock View Post
Ken Fisher also recently wrote an article forecasting next year's US market returns based on the election cycle. You can find it here.

Interestingly, in an election year such as 2016, the US market typically performs well if a Republican is to be elected but underperforms with a Democrat win. This trend then reverses the following year. Fisher is betting against Hilary - and consequently he also expects a solid year in the US market next year.

It does beg the question though....if Fisher and yourself are correct and next year will be a great year for the US I better off just investing my money down south rather than at home?
There haven't been enough elections in the U.S. For this to be anywhere near statistically significant.

For example from 1978 to 1998 in every year but 1990 if the NFC team won the Super Bowl the Dow went up that year, if the AFC team won the market went down.

Correlation does not equal causation.
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