[Cali Panthers Fan]

I figured this one would be debated heavily, as it should be. There are several "very good" prospects and little difference between them. I know nobody cares, but here's my thought process to ranking these players:

-The breakdown for me is 50% potential since that's the most important aspect of any prospect. Without potential you simply have a bunch of warm bodies, or "plugs" as they are affectionately referred to, and can't hope to build a better team.

-The next 20% is likelihood to translate to the NHL. This is hard to predict, but you can see certain subjective qualities that help prospects make it to the big show. Things like hockey IQ, work ethic, resilience, positive outlook, consistency etc. I have to admit that this is the one that varies a lot between these names since I know a lot about some guys and very little about others.

-10% is positional importance. I rank positions as such: starting goaltenders highest, top pairing defensemen, top 2 line centers, top 6 wingers, 2nd pairing defensemen, bottom 2 line centers, backup goaltender, bottom pairing defenders, and finally bottom 6 wingers.

-Another 10% comes from progression. This is important to see as a prospect matures, fills the holes in his game, and responds appropriately to higher levels of competition. If a prospect fails to progress adequately I rank them lowest against their comparables.

-The final 10% is the sample of play at the professional level. For me, the AHL is a small drop off from the NHL, as all top prospects go to play there for a little while. It's the proving ground to show you actually belong in the NHL. If there happens to be a significant sample at the NHL level, I take it even more into account.

So even though Ferland and Granlund have showed something at the NHL level, it's mostly in a lower positional importance compared to goaltending or defensemen. Culkin has 2nd pairing upside and has progressed steadily every year, with a decent sample in the AHL too, and without any major setbacks along the way. Ortio has shown more in the AHL and NHL, but it's been a long road for him and he's struggled with consistency at times, and he projects to be more of a backup in the NHL than a starter (IMO anyway).

Gillies has elite starter potential, and has been very consistent except for one stretch (that unfortunately happened at the WJC and shortly after). He's got the mental makeup to be a good pro, but I don't know everything about that aspect yet. Once I see how he plays at the pro level I'll have a better handle on him, but everything about Gillies makes me think he's destined to be the next franchise goaltender for the Flames, possibly being in the same conversation as Vernon and Kiprusoff.