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Old 03-03-2021, 01:35 PM   #10946
GGG
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Originally Posted by Slava View Post

I would also add that we have a pretty good idea of where new cases are these days. To the surprise of no one, it’s meat packing facilities, correctional facilities and congregated living. Of course there are other places, but that’s the vast majority. Has there been a documented of someone in a library contracted the virus? I highly doubt it, but we still had to have these closed for months. Would a retail store that has masking and distancing measures in place be cause for concern if they could have a more normal number of people inside? Almost surely. Instead we’re glossing over common sense and people line up outside. (What in the world people need so badly at IKEA is a whole other discussion, but I digress)

Anyway, I’m fine with the masking, social distancing and all of those precautions. I follow all of this religiously. But, that doesn’t mean I agree with the continued hammering of small businesses and insufficient supports for them while that happens.
My logic was if today we were sub 100 cases you would have about 5-6 doubling periods before overwhelming hospitals assuming a 50% reduction in hospitalization due to the vaccine. That would have been about 12-18 weeks from now which gets you into the 30% vaccinated range so you probably make it to the point where you hit peak cases and then vaccines drop them.

Instead we opened earlier because people were becoming non-compliant and that causes cases to start rising again to the 400 we are at today. So we now have only 2-3 doublings before we overwhelm hospitals again which gives much less time for vaccinations to drive down hospitalizations and spread.

It certainly wasn’t in support of endless lockdown or the elimination of Covid. It was to put us in a position that we would be done with widespread restrictions and back to summer mode from today onward. Instead businesses got to open 3 weeks earlier. (Note in general this is because people suck at avoiding in person social gatherings and not the fault of businesses. Businesses being closed makes it real for people so I think you get better compliance on the most important part of stopping spread)

Since we chose the partial open and it failed to maintain compliance I think we are better off just going back to the September levels, accept 30% case growth and in 6 weeks lock down again for 2-4 weeks to get the numbers on a permanent downward path.

I don’t like this half pregnant mode of people feeling like there are still restrictions And cases rising.

Last edited by GGG; 03-03-2021 at 01:37 PM.
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