Quote:
Originally Posted by nfotiu
Mitch said he'd support Trump if he was the GOP nominee. That's a lot of different than saying he is hoping he'd win the nomination.
Trump doesn't have massive support. There aren't many plausible candidates with a worse net approval rating. He does have a strong majority of support among GOP voters though.
The old guard GOP can't be happy at the prospect of having Trump as nominee. He really has no path to winning unless a lot changes between now and then.
The Virginia GOP has fought with this scenario for a decade now. GOP voters keep picking Tea Party or Trumpster crazies for state-wide elections and have completely lost a state they used to be competitive in. The party is trying to change that this year to prevent the craziest yet (Amanda Chase) from winning by ditching the primary. But due to state COVID rules, they stuck themselves with drive-in convention at Liberty University. So we'll see what that produces!
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While I hope you are right, I do not agree Trump has no (or little) path to win the general election.
He received more votes than any other candidate in history, not named Joe Biden.
I firmly believe Biden received so many votes not because of the love for him, but as a hate vote for Trump - not exactly an original opinion.
The problem for us who fear Trump wining again is... yes people will remember the Trump presidency in 2024, but voting on hate fades as time goes on, the base will not be as mobilized as people loose their passion. They may not support trump, but if they don't come out to vote, its pretty terrible (and some studies show the American election isn't about swing votes but actually about getting your base to come out in vote in high numbers)
However, the right will form their own protest vote against the Biden government based on talking points over the next 4 years. This tells me that Trump has a clear path to get the more votes in 2024 than 2020, while Biden has a high likelihood to get less than 2020. Enough to cover the margin? Who knows.
This all gets balanced by Biden's incumbent advantage which is huge (along with any over simplification of my past points), so Trump isn't a slam dunk win, but I strongly disagree he has no or even little path to victory in the general.
That said, I am extremely interested in the 2024 republican primaries- if gloves come off, it will be a so much fun to watch. Will candidates attack Trump for the riots? Grab some popcorn .