I am "pretty sure" that we are at the bottom for rates, but I couldn't say that with full certainty. I mean truthfully, I thought that we were there in 2008-09, and then a few more times through the teens...and then we cut again and obviously dropped in 2020! I don't think that North America will go negative at this point, but that's not entirely off the table.
For Canada, the job of central bank Governor has to be horrible. I mean look at the current scenario: you have two main real estate markets that are flying, and finally some growth in others but probably not enough to be concerned. You want to raise rates in those few cities where it needs to cool off...but don't want to crush everyone else!
The CAD is getting too high against the USD for many peoples liking...so you could cut rates and bring it back. But when you do that (say drop by 15pts) you spark more real estate issues in those cities and that's basically untenable. I'm glad that someone else has to make these decisions!
I think that the financials should benefit from that rising rate environment that just has to be coming in the next few years. The growthier names will struggle and as you mention that's the discount rate as well as the leverage inherent in a lot of the smaller startups that will see that borrowing cost rise. There is a segment of the market that should do fine with inflation though, because they have the pricing power required to raise those prices as the inputs rise for them.
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