[JohnnyB]

Originally Posted by FlameOn

I think if Hong Kong has shown anything, it's the CCP is completely unable to manage their own domestic and international relationships without resorting to use of force. Worse yet it's shown the CCP under Xi doesn't care about it's value of its treaties, its word, or the trust it has spent decades building, if it means they will have to lose any face.

Europe and the West need to put up strong consequences for these violations in HK otherwise its not a matter of if the invasion of Taiwan is going to happen but when. The PLA and the CCP are just looking for an excuse to invade at this point and in the current COVID-19 world w/ the Orange in chief allowing the spread in the US Navy (US military politically paralyzed and international relationships with allies at lowest point in past several decades), there is no better time to do it.

Not to take a Russian attitude towards this, but 2020 has been a disaster of a year so far, and it's not even half over yet.

I don't really feel this is an entirely fair description. China, so far, does have peaceful relations with most countries that it engages with. Hong Kong and Taiwan are special cases, and I think what has happened with HK is in no small part about sending a message regionally that Western powers are no longer the dominant players in the region. That includes no longer being beholden to deals made when weak and under duress.

It's worth keeping in mind that Hong Kong was ceded to Britain only as a result of Britain forcing them to give it up after years of Britain flooding the country with opium that was destroying lives and society in China, and that Britain used their technological military superiority to forcefully maintain that destructive flow of opium into the country because of the money that was being made from it. China has never considered the treaty that granted HK to Britain to be a fair treaty, and the relationship with Western powers and China made it clear that if you had power, you set whatever terms you want. From a Chinese perspective, taking back HK is the righting of an old wrong and a demonstration, both internally and regionally, that China is strong enough now to assert its rights and Western powers such as the US are longer dominant in the region.

What we're seeing is the rise of a country with a government, and a populace, that places a lot of pride in the country's history as a centre of civilization, culture and power. Xi, I believe, attaches a lot of importance to reclaiming Chinese pride and returning China to the sort of role it historically held in the region and the world. That is his intended legacy.

The table set by the West is one where the rules are made by whoever has power to force their interests upon others, sovereignty be damned. That's also virtually the most fundamental rule throughout history. China, like other countries, has watched the ways in which Britain and other colonial powers behaved, and how the US has continued to behave with countries that don't simply get on board with American hegemony. Unlike other countries, China has developed to a point where it now has confidence to actually stand up to Western powers and assert itself in its region, and just as conservatives in Canada and the US now accuse progressives of virtue signaling while grabbing power, China looks at the West as virtue signaling about human rights while continuing to enjoy the advantages gained through centuries of genocide, slavery, murder and theft.

China is rising as a country with a different world view and the power to now stand up for what it sees as being its interests, but that does not mean China is going to resort to violent force with everyone. Like any major power, China will look to serve it's own interests, but I think China will prefer to do this using economic and political coercion rather than force. I hope so.

On a personal note, I hate the loss of Hong Kong. It's a special place in the world. It's one of the places I consider home and where some of my happiest memories and best friendships of my life were formed. Hearing what's happening to friends still there, their businesses, their work in universities etc is really upsetting to me. I also strongly disagree with what's happening to the Uighurs. It's horrific, and seems to be just as bad or perhaps even worse than the residential school system and eugenics used for cultural genocide in Canada. It needs to be opposed.

At the same time, there is a lot of hyperbole about China in the West now that is shaping a narrative leading almost inevitably towards conflict. Maybe that conflict will be inevitable. Maybe it is right. But, maybe not. We should all be hesitant of narratives that lead that way though, because for the average person globally there is no doubt that conflict between China and the West will be more bad than good.

As heartbroken as I am about HK, and as real as I know the pain is on the part of HKers who want autonomy, I also believe the current rise in international tensions with China is much less about human rights and empathy for the people of HK or the Uighurs and much more about pushing back against a challenge to American global dominance and the dominance of the Western world view. Canada, as a middle power, will get pulled one way and the other. China certainly is moving to be a global competitor for the US and to expand it's own sphere of influence, but that's not necessarily going to be violent, or any more violent than how America operates. For us average people who will be caught in the middle of any conflict, we should be very cautious about narratives that could hurry us along into a situation that will hurt Canadians and other average people for the sake of American hegemony.