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Electric vehicles will kill global oil industry by 2030, says Stanford economist Tony Seba. If Tony Seba is correct, the Texas and Alberta economies just took a metaphorical bullet to the head

Spoiler!

The approval of autonomous vehicles will unleash a highly competitive
market-share grab among existing and new Pre-TaaS (ride-hailing)
companies in expectation of the outsized rewards of trillions of dollars of
market opportunities and network effects. Pre-TaaS platform providers
like Uber, Lyft and Didi are already engaged, and others will join this
high-speed race. Winners-take-all dynamics will force them to make
large upfront investments to provide the highest possible level of service,
ensuring supply matches demand in each geographic market they enter.

In this intensely competitive environment, businesses will offer services
at a price trending toward cost. As a result, their fleets will quickly
transition from human-driven, internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles
to autonomous electric vehicles (A-EV) because of key cost factors,
including ten times higher vehicle-utilization rates, 500,000-mile vehicle
lifetimes (potentially improving to 1 million miles by 2030), and far lower
maintenance, energy, finance and insurance costs.

As a result, transport-as-a-service (TaaS) will offer vastly lower-cost
transport alternatives — four to ten times cheaper per mile than
buying a new car and two to four times cheaper than operating an
existing vehicle in 2021.

Other revenue sources from advertising, data monetization,
entertainment and product sales will open a road to free transport in a
TaaS Pool model, as private and public transportation begin to merge.

Cost saving will also be the key factor in driving consumers to adopt
TaaS.

Adoption will start in cities and radiate outward to rural areas. Nonadopters
will be largely restricted to the most rural areas, where cost and
wait times are likely to be higher.

High vehicle utilization (each car will be used at least 10 times more than
individually owned cars) will mean that far fewer cars will be needed in
the U.S. vehicle fleet, and therefore there will be no supply constraint to
the speed and extent of TaaS adoption that we forecast.
Taken together, this analysis forecasts a very fast and extensive disruption:
TaaS will provide 95% of the passenger miles traveled within 10 years of
the widespread regulatory approval of AVs. By 2030, individually owned ICE
vehicles will still represent 40% of the vehicles in the U.S. vehicle fleet, but
they will provide just 5% of passenger miles.

Behavioral issues such as love of driving, fear of new technology or habit
are generally believed to pose initial barriers to consumer uptake. However,
Pre-TaaS companies such as Uber, Lyft and Didi have invested billions of
dollars developing technologies and services to overcome these issues. In
2016, Pre-TaaS companies drove 500,000 passengers per day in New York
City alone.1 That was triple the number of passengers driven the previous
year. The combination of TaaS’s dramatically lower costs compared with
car ownership and exposure to successful peer experience will drive more
widespread usage of the service. Adopting TaaS requires no investment or
lock-in. Consumers can try it with ease and increase usage as their comfort
level increases. Even in suburban and rural areas, where wait times and
cost might be slightly higher, adoption is likely to be more extensive than
generally forecast because of the greater impact of cost savings on lower
incomes. As with any technology disruption, adoption will grow along an
exponential S-curve.

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