Quote:
Originally Posted by SuperMatt18
I'm going to start by saying I still don't like this deal. The trade itself gave the Oilers the ability to buy out Neal after next season - and that in itself provides then with a lot of value just because that wasn't an option for them with Lucic.
However after doing some digging it turns out that the advanced stats and counting stats aren't actually that far apart for these two over the last two seasons.
The last two seasons would include both of Lucic's "bad" seasons in Edmonton, and Neals okay VGK season and "bad" season in Calgary. So you'd think this comparison should favour Neal...but it doesn't.
If you look at the last two seasons at 5v5:
Counting Stats:
Neal:
GP: 134
G: 22
A: 20
P: 42
Shots: 264
Shooting Percentage: 8.33%
Hits: 88
Lucic:
GP: 161
G: 11
A: 28
P: 39
Shots: 185
Shooting Percentage: 5.95%
Hits: 492
That's actually way closer than I thought it would be. Neal the better goal scorer but not as good of a distributor, and doesn't play physical Anymore. Lucic's shot seems to have dissapeared but he can still hit.
Advanced Stats:
Neal:
CF%: 50.5%
CF% Rel: -1.76%
HDCF%: 47.4%
GF%: 46.4%
xGF%: 48.1%
xGF% Rel: -4.69%
PDO: .992
Offensive Zone Start: 59.5%
Lucic
CF%: 50.9%
CF% Rel:2.09%
HDCF%: 50.8%
GF%: 47.1%
xGF%: 51.2%
XGF% Rel: 2.3%
PDO: .992
Offensive Zone Start: 49.8%
From an advanced stat perspective Lucic has actually been much better than Neal over the last two seasons.
He's been better from a raw number perspective, better from a relative to teammates perspective, and did it with tougher zone starts.
Overall I still think Treliving is crazy to do this since it helps the Oilers out too much - but from an on ice perspective this actually doesn't make the Flames much worse next season, and helps fill a hole from a physicality perspective. And probably helps the locker room since Lucic is more suited to a bottom 6 role, where it appears that Neal may not have been happy in that same role.
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needs penalty diff stat...