Quote:
Originally Posted by Thor
Some in the media are suggesting a blue tsunami this fall, but call me skeptical. It would be great to see Trump utterly get destroyed this time around, just to see his ego hurt but the way the US has major issues with voter suppression, gerrymandering and the like, I am not that optimistic. Win sure, but no massive Senate takeover by the dems.
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Here's how the numbers stack up. In Presidential it looks like a land slide. Trump has lost his firewall and is solidly behind in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Those three states carried the election for him by only 77,000 votes. He burned through that advantage like a mob loan against the Taj Mahal in Atlantic City. He's getting crushed in all three. He also trails in Florida by a good margin. To make matters even worse, he trails in North Carolina and Georgia, Texas and Arizona.
In the Senate the numbers don't look good for Republicans either. Being tied to a flailing Trump is not doing them any favors.
Democrats
Safe
Cory Booker (New Jersey)
Christopher Coons (Delaware)
Dick Durbin (Illinois)
Ed Markey (Massachusetts)
Jeff Merkley (Oregon)
Gary Peters (Michigan)
Jack Reed (Rhode Island)
Tina Smith (Minnesota)
Tom Udall (New Mexico) (retired)
Mark Warner (Virginia)
Jeanne Shaheen (New Hampshire)
In trouble
Doug Jones (Alabama)
Of the Dems, Jones is the only one that is classified as being in a race and he is still leading in his state. His lead is not commanding, but he is holding firm and not seeing significant movement in polling that establishes a negative trend. The Dems are not expected to see a loss based on current projections.
Republicans
Safe
Lamar Alexander (Tennessee) (retired)
Shelley Moore Capito (West Virginia)
Bill Cassidy (Louisiana)
Tom Cotton (Arkansas)
Michael Enzi (Wyoming)
Cindy Hyde-Smith (Mississippi)
James Inhofe (Oklahoma)
David Perdue (Georgia)
James Risch (Idaho)
Mike Rounds (South Dakota)
Ben Sasse (Nebraska)
The Republicans have a much larger number of senators up for re-election and the trend in state leanings for president is taking its toll. While there are a number that are safe, there is a greater number where the trends are not looking good.
In Trouble
John Cornyn (Texas)
Kelly Loeffler (Georgia)
Joni Ernst (Iowa)
Pat Roberts (Kansas) (retired)
Lindsey Graham (South Carolina)
Mitch McConnell (Kentucky)
The exposure to recent ads tying Republicans to the support of Trump has been effective and started disturbing trends for some power players. McConnell is facing an onslaught of outside money and is seeing a negative trend. Lady G is in some serious trouble and could slip into the group below. The fact that these individuals are even being discussed as at risk is a statement to the temperature of our politics.
The follow Republicans are not just at risk, but trailing in their races and moving in the wrong direction. These look like they could very well be gains in the Senate for the Democrats and change the seat of power.
Steve Daines* (Montana)
Cory Gardner* (Colorado)
Susan Collins* (Maine)
Thom Tillis* (North Carolina)
Martha McSally* (Arizona)
Of course it is only July, and things can change. But with Trump in the White House you know there is certainly to be nothing but negativity coming out and all of falling on the Republicans' heads. Trump is the biggest liability this cycle and the Republicans are getting pounded as a result.