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Old 09-16-2018, 02:59 PM   #1
TheScorpion
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Flames A discussion of depth up front

The Flames are an interesting team for a number of reasons. They've made a number of personnel changes across the lineup. Most fans are intrigued by the additions of guys like Noah Hanifin, Elias Lindholm, and James Neal -- and that's not to say that I'm not. However, while it'll be fun to watch those guys alongside the Flames' pre-existing core, I'm much more interested in tracking this team's depth.

Why?

Well, look at the Flames from last year to this one. The following forwards played "depth roles" on this team last season -- that is, regularly outside the top-6:

Sam Bennett
Mark Jankowski
Troy Brouwer
Matt Stajan
Curtis Lazar
Garnet Hathaway
Kris Versteeg
Jaromir Jagr
Tanner Glass

Over half of those nine players are just outright gone. Only Bennett, Jankowski, Lazar, and Hathaway remain, in addition to -- as of now -- Derek Ryan, Austin Czarnik, and former top-six forward Michael Frolik, who will likely slide down into the bottom-six thanks to the acquisitions of Neal and Lindholm.

These new depth acquisitions are intriguing and have lots to like, and I think most Flames fans would agree with me on this. Ryan and Czarnik have already impressed in their brief showing thus far and I think it is safe to say that they will hold down bottom-six roles, as will Bennett, Jankowski, and Frolik.

Now, nobody knows how the season will go. Perhaps Derek Ryan finds a ridiculous spark next to Gaudreau and Monahan and has a miracle season, pushing a guy like Mikael Backlund into the bottom-six. Perhaps James Neal falters and is forced onto the fourth line, allowing a guy like Frolik to reclaim his old spot. There is endless room for speculation, and a lot has already been said about the merits of placing certain players in certain situations. However, in terms of discussing depth, it makes sense to project a lineup similar to this one:

Gaudreau - Monahan - Lindholm/Neal
Tkachuk - Backlund - Neal/Lindholm
Frolik - Ryan/Czarnik - Czarnik/Ryan
?/Bennett - Jankowski - Bennett/?
? - ? (extra forwards)

You'll notice that three spots have yet to be filled in that lineup. (Bennett will occupy one of the wing positions on the "fourth line," although it can safely be called line "3B.") The purpose of this discussion is simple, then: who occupies those spots?

Here are some candidates. For the purposes of this discussion, there will be two different kinds of roles available: 12F, and EF (extra forward, of which there are two.)

Curtis Lazar
Possible roles: 12F, EF

Lazar has toiled in relative mediocrity since being acquired at the 2017 trade deadline. I'm not sure if that trade has ever made sense, and there's a feeling that this is Lazar's last chance to change that. I say that Lazar could possibly fill that 12th forward role, but that chance seems ever-so-slim after a full season of recurring ineptitude. While he seems to be a great guy in the locker room by all accounts, Lazar is a far-below-average puckhandler and his underlying numbers leave a lot to be desired.

That might be all right if his counting stats made up for it, but they do not. Recording only 2 goals in 65 games last year, Lazar managed to be the Flames' single worst offensive forward, which is saying something. Matt "Mr. Clean" Stajan had a better scoring season. Lazar's one saving grace used to be his youth, but he'll be 24 by the end of the season and there's a good shot that, if he doesn't improve, he won't be qualified as an RFA.

Lazar requires waivers to be sent down to the AHL, and his expensive acquisition cost and high draft pedigree has stopped Brad Treliving from utilizing that avenue in the past. However, the cost of keeping other high-profile guys out of the lineup might outweigh Lazar's "potential" very soon. Perhaps even by the end of training camp. Lazar could be a decent option to munch on popcorn in the press box, but is he really the guy you want to bring into the lineup when the likes of Gaudreau and Monahan need a rest?

Garnet Hathaway
Possible roles: 12F, EF

One of Glen Gulutzan's most head-scratching tactics as Flames coach was his repeated insistence upon keeping Garnet Hathaway with Sam Bennett and Mark Jankowski. Ever since that duo was united, it has been clear that they require a good-quality offensive NHL winger beside them to find success. Jaromir Jagr did well enough with them. Garnet Hathaway was... wildly inconsistent. His 2017-18 season was like a microcosm of the Flames overall from 2014-15 to 2015-16, but heavily slanted in pace towards the latter. He started off surprisingly hot, showing great wheels and chemistry with his linemates, but quickly tailed off, failing to impress in the slighest and honestly looking very disappointingly slow.

However, in Shenzen, Hathaway once again slotted in beside Bennett and Jankowski. Why??? While he has shown otherwise in the AHL, Hathaway has never shown any capability to produce consistent offense at the NHL level, and he is now nearing his 27th birthday. It is befuddling that he still has a place on this team while other players possessing far more dynamic or complete games toil away in the AHL. However, Hathaway still has more hustle and consistency in his game than Lazar, and also features more physicality. He also requires waivers, and in his case, I feel like he will not be exposed to them by management. He's a good bet to sit in the pressbox for the majority of the season.

Andrew Mangiapane
Possible roles: 12F

Mangiapane is an interesting case. He tore it up in the AHL last year but lost the end of his season due to shoulder surgery. However, before that, he made his NHL debut with the Flames and looked... fine. Perhaps it was the relative lack of quality of his linemates, perhaps it was jitters, but Mangiapane looked rather unimpressive at the NHL level. However, he clearly oozes skill and, despite his diminutive stature, plays with a lot of tenacity.

Already 22 years old, Mangiapane is a really solid bet to start the season on the 4th line. However, depending on who he plays with, he might not be an ideal choice due to his lack of size. If Bill Peters decides to play Bennett and Jankowski with a more veteran player in Frolik, the 5'10" Mangiapane would be left to play with the likes of Ryan and Czarnik, neither of whom sniff 6'. But in a league ever-dependent on speed and skill over size, there's a good chance that Treliving will overlook this potential disadvantage.

One thing's for certain: Mangiapane is playing the whole season. If he's not on the ice in the NHL, he's on the ice in the AHL. No pressbox for him.

Dillon Dube
Possible roles: 12F

Dillon Dube's career trajectory can be described as "meteoric." After a few decent seasons with the Kelowna Rockets leading up to his draft year, Dube exploded in his D+2 season, recording 84 points in 53 WHL games and being named captain of Team Canada at the World Juniors. Not only that, but he barely missed the cut for the big club in Calgary last year, with star Johnny Gaudreau expressing surprise when Dube didn't make it.

He still looks to be on the same track. Dube was enormously impressive in the Flames' prospect series against the Oilers last week and already looks like the team's most complete forward prospect. He just turned 20, however, and the question remains of if he has had enough seasoning. With only 7 professional games to his name (and 4 points, all in 6 regular season games with the Heat last season), Dube has had but a brief taste of hockey above the junior level. However, that hasn't stopped the Flames before. Sam Bennett, Sean Monahan, and Matthew Tkachuk all went straight from junior hockey to the NHL before they turned 19 and Dube now has over a year on all three of them. If he continues to impress, there's no way he'll be without an NHL job for long.

Morgan Klimchuk
Possible roles: 12F

The question of seasoning does not apply to Morgan Klimchuk. Among the Flames' eldest prospects, the 2013 first-rounder has finally shown signs of putting it all together in the last two seasons. With 83 points in his last 128 AHL games, Klimchuk clearly has an offensive side to his game, but that pales in comparison to his fantastic 200-foot sense. Relied on heavily as Stockton's top penalty killer last season, Klimchuk had very little support on special teams. In Calgary, Klimchuk would not have the same problem. The prospect of uniting him with the likes of Mikael Backlund and Michael Frolik on the penalty kill should have Ryan Huska salivating.

Huska knows Klimchuk well from his time in Stockton, where he relied on him heavily. That connection alone bodes well for Klimchuk's hopes of making the Flames, as does the fact that he was chosen to accompany the team to China for the O.R.G. China preseason games against Boston. While some may argue that this means little for his chances -- he sat out the first preseason game while the likes of Mangiapane and Dube will get prime minutes back in Calgary -- his seniority in the organization and the opportunity to bond with his potential teammates overseas could indicate that Klimchuk is being groomed for a spot on the roster.

Familiarity with his new assistant coach and his ability to contribute to both special teams could make Klimchuk the Flames' 12th forward this season. He certainly seems due. While he isn't the flashiest player, he certainly is complete and seasoned.

Spencer Foo
Possible roles: 12F

Spencer Foo took a while to get going last season, but he turned on a torrid pace in the second half and narrowly avoided edging out Klimchuk for second on Stockton's scoring list. Perhaps consistency is an issue for the former collegiate star, or maybe he needed some time to adjust to pro hockey. At age 24, he is actually a whole year older than Klimchuk, and seems to have more offensive firepower to offset his relative lack of completeness in his game. His stat-line doesn't tell the whole story. If his pace from the end of last season is to be believed (it was far closer to a point-per-game than what his 39-in-62 line would indicate) he has a great deal of offensive potential.

Foo held his own in 4 games with the big club at the end of last season, scoring his first 2 NHL goals while playing with the likes of Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan. Chances are he won't see those linemates for any extended amount of time if he makes the Flames out of camp, and it remains to be seen if his largely offense-oriented game is a fit in a more bottom-six role. However, with the Flames' concerted effort to offload most of their "grinders" in the offseason, Foo will likely play with skilled linemates wherever he slots in on the NHL team, if he makes it. However, his pro sample size is still smaller than most, and it is still up in the air regarding what he has to offer other than scoring -- if he can even translate that on a consistent basis.

Other options for an extra forward spot:

Anthony Peluso -- also making the trip with the team to China. Certainly a grinder, which the Flames have shown love for in the past (Tanner Glass, anyone?) but with little offensive upside and few spots available, the only way that Peluso will see consecutive games in the NHL lineup is if, like, half of the top-6 gets hurt at once. Maaaaybe a 14th forward.

Alan Quine -- Quine has played a full season of hockey at the NHL level, along with parts of two others. Notably scored a playoff overtime goal against the Panthers in 2016. He's only one year older than Foo and could be a Marek Hrivik-type for the Heat this year. He's average-sized and not physical at all, though. Probably a better option than Peluso.

Buddy Robinson -- Robinson is a curious case, to say the least. He's on his fourth organization in the last four years. He signed as an undrafted free agent with Ottawa back in 2012 and never really established himself as a consistent AHL scorer until five years and two teams later, with the Manitoba Moose (Jets farm team) this past year. It's still unlikely he sees any time as he's only played 7 NHL games, whereas Quine has seen 94 and Peluso 144. But there's some intrigue. He's definitely big, at 6'6".

Tyler Graovac -- Graovac is kind of like Quine, except without the AHL production. A member of the 2018 Stanley Cup Champion Capitals -- albeit barely -- Graovac is 6'5" and played his lone semi-full NHL season with the Wild in 2016-17, recording 7 goals and 9 points in 52 games. He only recorded 29 points in the AHL last season at age 24, though -- not exactly awe-inspiring, even if Hershey didn't find much success.

Kerby Rychel -- I don't really know why Marc Bergevin traded this guy for Shinkaruk, but alas, he did. Strange, because Rychel is actually a pretty productive AHL player who has a gritty aspect to his game that Shinkaruk lacks. Rychel is the same age as Klimchuk and it should be interesting to see the two 2013 first-rounders in a side-by-side comparison. They're similar players with similar shots to make the team, although management is likely comfortable with having Rychel in the pressbox.

Ryan Lomberg -- also known as "Jagr's replacement." Lomberg managed to outscore Mangiapane at the NHL level last year which is actually kind of hilarious. He's a ball of energy, but he's also super tiny and it's hard to imagine him having a long NHL career. Did you see what Ross Johnston did to him? He'd better be careful out there. Certainly shouldn't be in the NHL lineup every nighy and there are more energy guys in the Flames' system with multiple facets to their games.

Glenn Gawdin -- Gawdin will play his first professional season this year, and it'll be really interesting to watch if he can replicate his monstrous season in 2017-18. 125 points? Even as an overager, that's darned impressive. Unlike a lot of the Flames' skilled CHL prospects, he's also decently-sized, clocking in at 6'1". Pretty darned impressive for a guy who the St. Louis Blues, usually a pretty savvy organization, wouldn't sign. He'll probably get a look in the AHL to start the year before a potential callup.

Matthew Phillips -- the Johnny Gaudreau comparisons have been there since Phillips played his first game as a Flames prospect. They're probably a little unfair -- Gaudreau is an NHL superstar while Phillips just turned 20 in the WHL -- but the kid clearly has oodles of skill and resembles Gaudreau on the ice in more ways than one. Both players were late-round picks, both are incredibly shifty, both are incredibly short -- but Phillips shoots right. Can you imagine him on the other side of Gaudreau, if he pans out? However, we need to see what he does in the AHL first. Like Gawdin, I could see a callup at some point in the year.

Here's how I'd rank those guys for a 12F spot:

1. Dube
2A. Mangiapane
2B. Klimchuk
4. Foo
5. Hathaway
6. Lazar
7. Rychel
8. Quine
9. Peluso
10. Robinson

And for an EF spot:

1. Hathaway
2. Lazar
3. Rychel
4. Quine
5. Peluso
6. Klimchuk
7. Robinson
8. Graovac
9. Lomberg
10. Foo

Thoughts?
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Last edited by TheScorpion; 09-17-2018 at 08:40 AM.
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