[Bingo]

Originally Posted by iggy_oi

This question isn’t being asked to you specifically but there are a number of posters who keep stating that things have changed from what the league expected, so could anyone answer how 35%, 45%, 50%, 75% or any other percentage of the league’s usual expected revenue in preceding years calculated in July is materially different than the results of those same exact calculations in November?

That is what the league made their projections for, to decide what they could live with agreeing to. If they really had an issue with the no fans scenario they themselves accounted for they would have negotiated safeguards against that, much like the players did to account for revenues returning to normal quicker than expected. The league acknowledging this potential outcome and negotiating a deal based on that being one of many possible expectable outcomes is in essence the league agreeing to take on the liability of that outcome.

I can appreciate that the league isn’t happy about how it worked out, the same as the players would not have liked it if revenues bounced back this season while they were still deferring 20% of their salary(which I doubt the league would have threatened cancelling the season over to remedy because “things changed” but that’s a whole other debate), but I don’t buy their argument that running their business under the current circumstances which based on their actions worked for them in July doesn’t work now.

Forbes article on the NHL trying to change the deal

Link

Requesting amendments to a ratified agreement is a big deal and the NHL knows that. So to approach the Union for further concessions means the league is seeing something new and material that requires urgent attention. Indeed, the NHL believes that its financial assumptions have so dramatically changed such that this coming season is no longer financially viable within the four corners of the existing framework.

So what has changed for the league? It’s fans - or more precisely no fans. The NHL didn’t anticipate that it wouldn’t have fans in arenas this season. Most were expecting some return to normalcy in Fall of 2020. That has now been pushed to at least the Fall of 2021. So there was a belief fans would be back; they will not.

That substantially alters the financial outlook for the league. Under the existing framework, players will take home $1.6 billion in salaries. With league revenue hovering around $1.8 to $2 billion without fans in attendance, players would account for 80% of league revenue. That’s a far cry from the typical arrangement of a 50/50 split of league revenue.

The NHLPA, however, is banking on an additional $1 billion injection of revenue by way of some fans attending some of the games. If that is indeed the case, then the players would take home closer to 53% of league revenue, which presumably would be far more palatable for both sides. At this point, however, fans in the stands for this upcoming season does not seem too likely.