Originally Posted by SebC
It's more than just Humphries' first day that had issues - she bled time on runs 3 and 4 as well, though not as drastically. Kripps' 4-man team had the best starts and would lose time even before he made his driving errors. Even his 2-man team that won gold did the something similar on their last run - gained position at the top, lost time at the bottom. (Granted, that was on the same runners as Humpries' first day.)
For example, here are the rankings of the top 3 women's teams in (not at) each split.
Women - Germany 1
Run 1: 5, 4, 4, 3, 3, 2
Run 2: 5, 4, 2, 1, 4, 3
Run 3: 5, 4, 1, 1, 1, 2
Run 4: 5, 3, 1, 2, 1, 2
Women - USA 1
Run 1: 1, 1, 6, 7, 11, 9
Run 2: 1, 1, 17, 12, 9, 7
Run 3: 1, 1, 6, 8, 5, 5
Run 4: 1, 1, 6, 7, 11, 9
Women - Canada 1
Run 1: 2, 2, 6, 10, 13, 12
Run 2: 2, 2, 3, 12, 9, 11
Run 3: 3, 2, 1, 2, 3, 6
Run 4: 3, 2, 2, 3, 4, 7
All things being equal, these numbers should not change. If you have the 2nd fastest start, you should be 2nd fastest in all segments of the track. If you make a driving error, you should fall in the segment where you made the error, and fall further in the next segment because now you're slow for a full segment instead of just a partial one, and then go back to being consistent. Maybe if you drive clean, you can expect to rise a bit in each segment, as other drivers make errors.
When you look at Humpries' last two runs, after the runner change, you see a gradual loss of rank over 4 segments. That either means that she was remarkably consistent in making a series of tiny errors, or that her sled has a disadvantage that gets heightened at higher speed. Given that the analyst thought she outdrove the field, and aerodynamic drag varies with the square of speed, I'm guessing that she had an aerodynamic disadvantage, at least compared to Germany and their exclusive sleds.
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