Quote:
Originally Posted by Azure
Aren't even hurricanes trending downwards in terms of occurrence?
I know forest fires for sure people thought were increasing in rate and size, but at least in Canada the evidence suggests otherwise.
We are terrible at managing our forests so the fires are not something I would use to see 'oh this is because of climate change.'
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I believe hurricane frequency is dropping, but that is well within the model. Hurricane Magnitude on the other hand is going up quickly. With less regional variation in temperature, there are fewer opportunities to set off storms, but when they go off there is more energy to fuel them.
The data actually show with modern computing climate models have become pretty accurate, the inconsistencies are knowing what shapes clouds will form to know how energy will bounce off them. This is pretty random and unpredictable so little pockets of unexpected energy can cause surprises.