Quote:
Originally Posted by Robbob
So I have been thinking about this lately. What would his stat line have to look like to not be a super negative value contract? What would it take to make it palatable?
Looking at some of the players last year and their stat lines:
Tom Wilson 5.16M - 40 points in 66 games (probably the high water mark)
JT Miller 5.25M - 47 points in 75 games
Alex Kilorn 4.45M - 40 points in 80 games
Justin Abdelkader 4.25M - 19 points in 71 games (low bar as this contract is bleh)
Nazem Kadri 4.5M - 44 points in 73 games
I think all will play a bigger role on their team, but if Lucic can get to 30-40 points does that take the sting of his 5.25M cap hit? Is a 10-15 points more from last season asking for too much?
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I think any value comparison has to go back to Ryan Reeves.
Reeves is making $2.75M this year and had 20 points last year, his career best by a wide amount.
He's essentially a 12-15 point player, and that might even be a stretch.
If Lucic can provide the same role in Calgary that Reeves plays in Vegas then he's overpaid by $2.75M (double the salary).
Lucic had 20 points last year, same as Reeves, so you could just stop there and call them the same. His history has a .56 ppg average (45 points), which I think we can all agree is unlikely. Two seasons ago he had 35 points, which is maybe more likely.
A 35 point version of Reeves has value, so it's $2.75M + ?
+ $1M
+ $2M
that seems high.
lets say $1.5M. Now you have Lucic, the bottom six enforcer with 35 points making $4.25M, over paid by $1.25
His intimidation value is the trick. Neal is a goal scorer and does nothing else. He doesn't agitate, fight, play good defense, drive a line, or lead from what we saw. If he's not scoring he's overpaid by the the difference between his salary (in this case $5.75M + $0.75M Lucic retained) less the value of a replacement player ... roughly $5.5M
If Neal gets back to 20 they don't have a problem.
It's going to be an interesting season to watch.