I think we're well past the point of no return, and suspect that the "outlandish" cascade scenarios (permafrost methane, ocean CO2, etc) are likely. Human psychology is just not built for longterm, global thinking; we'll try to take care of our "own", but climate change is just too remote (as is overpopulation).
I think a lot about Canada and what a small country with abundant water and resources, plentiful food, and a lot of space will look like in the coming century. If millions and millions begin to die, and many millions of others become refugees, it's fascinating/scary to think about what will happen here: Wars? Taken over by the US? Harsh patrolling of our borders?
We'll probably be fantastically rich, and very envied, but we will also be dealing with many millions of desperate people elsewhere: there are places in China, India, Africa, and South America containing billions of people that will largely become uninhabitable because of heat, humidity, and lack of water.
I also think that climate change is going to lead to millions - maybe billions - of deaths. People in rich, colder countries will develop tech to save themselves, but saving everyone isn't going to happen in my view. We've never been great at "sharing" as a species, and for the majority of the world (i.e. the "Third World"), things have always been basically this way. Middle class is both average in the West and yet beyond the aspirations of a majority of the rest of the world; climate change will make that a permanent state of affairs. Inequality will be entrenched.
But yeah, from a Canadian perspective - rich, cold, sparsely-populated, and abundant with water - we're going to have much of the world looking in our direction.
|