[SuperMatt18]

Over the last couple weeks there has been a lot of discussion about David Rittich and if he is truly the long term solution in the Calgary Flames net.

So far this season he's been in the top 5 in pretty much every major goaltending category, but he did have a few bad games last year down the stretch which causes concerns and has never played more than 48 games in a season at any level as a pro.

The discussion got me thinking....when can you really say that a goalie is on track to be a legitimate starter and when is it still just a flash in the pan? And what did other NHL goalies look like after their first two seasons as a pro?

Through his first two NHL seasons Rittich has played in 46 NHL games and has a .914 save percentage and a 2.61 GAA in that time but what does that look like against other groups of current NHLers and how they performed during their first two seasons:

The Elite - Consistent long term #1s that have cups or Vezinas:

Quick: .911, 2.55 GAA (47 GP) - Career: .916
Price: .912, 2.71 GAA (93 GP) - Career: .918
Lundqvist: .919, 2.29 (123 GP) - Career: .919
Bobrovsky: .909, 2.73 (83 GP) - Career: .919
Rinne: .914, 2.46 (110 GP) - Career: .919
Holtby: .923, 2.39 (57 GP) - Career: .919
Rask: .926, 2.24 (74 GP) - Career: .922

The Next Gen - Young goalies that established at top end starters in the last 3 years:

Vasilevskiy: .913, 2.60 (40 GP) - Career: .918
Gibson: .918. 2.26 (63 GP) - Career: .923
Raanta: .912, 2.41 (39 GP) - Career: .920
Anderson: .918. 2.35 (88 GP) - Career: .918
Hellebuyck: .910, 2.71 (82 GP) - Career: .915

The Journeymen - Guys that have shown flashes but have never been considered elite.

Elliott: .906, 2.64 (86 GP)- Career: .913
Smith: .905, 2.45 (57 GP) - Career: .912
Markstrom: .897, 3.19 (46 GP) - Career: .908
Allen: .911, 2.33 (52 GP) - Career: .911
Lehtonen: .910. 2.84 (106 GP) - Career: .912
Talbot: .931, 2.00 (57 GP) - Career: .917

The Washouts - Guys with high potential that never worked out:

Fasth: .904, 2.79 (63 GP)
Berra: .905, 2.85 (76 GP)
Korpisalo: .907, 2.94 (77 GP)
Pickard: .909, 2.89, (98 GP)
Tokarski: .904, 2.84 (34 GP)

So while it's not the most elaborate analysis I look at that data and to me Rittich is trending pretty well after his first 47 games. If he can continue his numbers this season for the next 40 games (~30 starts), and finish with around a .920 save percentage for the season, then that would put him at probably ~75 GP with a .915 save percentage.

If he can do that he would compare very favorably to the goalies in the first two groups (Elite & The Next Gen) and could potentially be the Flames long term solution in goal. Still too early to tell one way or another but these next 40 games in the Flames goal could go a long way in seeing what we have here long term with Rittich.

Also I hope the Oilers give up on Talbot and the Flames sign him to platoon with Rittich. He's having a bad year but that team is broken and I feel like he would still bounce back Dubnyk style on a new team.


And just because everyone seems to love this comparison: Kipper's first 80 games in the NHL (3 seasons) - .914 save percentage.