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Old 09-20-2007, 07:45 PM   #219
McG
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Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: Elbows Up!!
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I can tell you that quite a few organizations are taking FX positions with the dollar above par.

this is viewed as a relatively short term thing...but it is likely to stay this way for a little while.

economically speaking, a long term dollar at par isn't likely a good thing for Canada. The good news is that the BoC is likely to reduce interest rates to keep the dollar getting too high. If they don't, the combination of high interest rates, an export based economy, and a high dollar versus our primary trading partner may lead to some recessionary tendencies if they don't cut rates.

On the other hand, a higher interest rate may increase the savings rate, which will reduce inflationary tendencies...but at what cost? jobs. not good.

its tricky but i expect that the BoC will be looking at reducing overnight rates first and then eyeballing prime.
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